การวิเคราะห์ตลาดสแตนเลสและนิกเกิล
การวิเคราะห์ตลาดสแตนเลสและนิกเกิล
Stainless Steel Futures Prices
Stainless steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term. After the May Day holiday, prices initially rose and fell, bottoming out in mid-May. By May 20, prices had rebounded to their highest levels in April. The market sentiment remains positive and bullish.
Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices
On May 15, the highest, lowest, and closing prices of the main stainless steel futures contract 2409 were 14,215 หยวน/เสียง, 14,005 หยวน/เสียง, และ 14,075 หยวน/เสียง, respectively. By May 17, these prices had risen to 14,400 หยวน/เสียง, 14,075 หยวน/เสียง, และ 14,370 หยวน/เสียง, respectively. On May 20, the market remained hot, with prices reaching 14,610 หยวน/เสียง, 14,365 หยวน/เสียง, และ 14,455 หยวน/เสียง, respectively.
In the spot market, prices also rose. On May 17, the price of 304 stainless steel increased by 50 ถึง 200 หยวน/เสียง. In Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, the price of 304 cold-rolled plate rose by 50 ถึง 100 หยวน/เสียง, while the price of 304 hot-rolled plate rose by 150 หยวน/เสียง. In Foshan, Guangdong Province, the price of 304 cold-rolled plate increased by 100 ถึง 150 หยวน/เสียง, and the price of 304 hot-rolled plate rose by 150 ถึง 200 หยวน/เสียง.
Nickel Prices
Since April, the price of Shanghai nickel has fluctuated rapidly and risen. In mid-May, it maintained a higher price level, and from May 16, it rose sharply again. On May 17, the highest, lowest, and closing prices of the main contract 2406 of Shanghai Nickel Futures were 154,690 หยวน/เสียง, 145,950 หยวน/เสียง, และ 153,460 หยวน/เสียง, respectively. By May 20, prices had increased further, with the highest price reaching 159,800 หยวน/เสียง.
In the spot market, prices of upstream raw materials have risen sharply. On May 17, the spot nickel plate price of Changjiang Nonferrous Metals was 151,150 หยวน/เสียง, ขึ้น 4,250 หยวน/เสียง. On May 20, the price of Changjiang Comprehensive No. 1 nickel ranged from 154,900 yuan/ton to 157,400 หยวน/เสียง, with an average price of 156,150 หยวน/เสียง, ขึ้น 5,000 หยวน/เสียง.
Economic Data and Macro Policies
Several economic and policy factors have positively influenced the market. In the U.S., core producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) data have raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. นอกจากนี้, Indonesia’s slower-than-expected nickel mine approval has caused market supply concerns, boosting nickel prices.
Domestically, the Ministry of Finance issued 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the central bank announced policies to reduce down payments and interest rates. These measures, along with seasonal demand and supportive policies, have boosted market confidence, leading to higher prices for Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures.
Outlook for Stainless Steel Prices
Despite the positive economic data and policies, some factors may hinder the market’s continued rise. Stainless steel manufacturers have resumed production, but terminal demand remains weak. Rising inventories and high futures warehouse receipts suggest ongoing supply pressure. นอกจากนี้, although nickel supply remains high, downstream demand has not shown sustained recovery.
โดยสรุป, while favorable economic conditions and policies have strengthened market confidence, uncertainties in the Fed’s interest rate path, geopolitical risks, and supply pressures persist. It is predicted that stainless steel futures prices may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term.
